5/25/2004 04:27:42 PM|||Nathan Moore|||

The topic is generally not framed in such a way, but in all honesty, will always boil down to these two options. Either the Arab world can or cannot produce vibrant, functional democracies. Being the eternal optimist, firmly planted in the plains of reality, I offer that democracy can and will grow in the Middle East. The ultimate caveat, is, of course, that conditions must be right.

Instapundit notes a recent debate on the topic. When I speak of the right conditions for the growth of Arab democracy, I think in terms of who will see it through. The experiment here in America, Europe, and Asia has flourished only after complete societal upheaval. There are various degrees of societal change in each example, but in none was the process easy, smooth and quick. America suffered a horrible economic collapse after a painful and bloody revolution, emerging victorious and democratic only after the most powerful military on earth had been defeated. In the UK, the process was more gradual, but there had been numberous battles over the years, from the cornering of King John, to the effects of Cromwell and the Interregnum, to get to the current parliamentary system now functioning. Germany and Japan were both obliterated, spiritually and physically, before becoming democractic. Eastern Europe's fledgling democracies emerged from over forty years of oppressive, totalitarian rule, and are just now finding their footing.

My point, and it is an unfortunate one, is that there must be some sort of complete upheaval in the Middle East, whether governmental or societal, before democracy can exist. In other words, the people must sacrifice and brave death, or the current ruling classes must somehow be removed. Anything short of this would be an historical first. This is not to say that democratic change could not happen in a peaceful way, but the worst possible result would be democracy-in-name-only, where oligarchs and those in positions of influence manipulated the new system for their own gain. This happened some in Eastern Europe after the fall. The worst of the perpetrators, such as Vladimir Meciar in Slovakia, were quickly (i.e. within five years or so) dispatched.

Hmm...an add-on point. We've been in Iraq a little over a year. The country is largely intact. Is it at all appropriate that the United States be given a little slack here? I guess the answer to that depends on how much of a partisan you are.

|||108552160298890523|||Arab Democracy - Optimism or Tom-Foolery