10/19/2004 02:24:11 PM|||Nathan Moore|||

Story after story has come up about the record number of new voter registrations across the country, and especially in swing states. Articles today include stories out ofColorado, Pennsylvania, and Cincinnati, And there's more.

But will it matter much?

First, there's the simple problem of fraudulent registrations. We had that problem here in Nashville come to light a couple weeks ago (though the Democrats here don't pay for registrations in crack rock). With the pressured push to hit registration numbers, it seems that fakery is an accepted tactic (at least on one side). I have yet to see any registration stories that can be laid at the feet of overzealous GOP operatives.

Second, assuming the new registered voters are legit, will they even vote? The best indicator of whether someone will vote is not whether they're registered, but they're past voting history. Pace University made this case in a study last month.

Just something to ponder - I'm of the opinion that all the extra registration will mean little. Turnout of old voters is, and will always be, the key to electoral victory.

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